For the next two years ERAS are bullish oil but not gas prices in non-oil indexed trades due to the supply overhang. Gas price volatility will remain high however and this suggests that attractive arbitrage opportunities will continue between the US and European markets even with Henry Hub forward prices well below European markets. In our recent annual price forecasting exercise our Monte Carlo simulations suggested that 12% of LNG cargoes might be profitably diverted between the US and UK markets in the next two years. Cheap options on regas capacity should be a good investment.